For years, US investment bank JPMorgan has maintained a positive outlook on gold. Its forecasts for the past two years have proven accurate, and experts remain optimistic about the precious metal’s prospects for 2025. “Gold still appears well-positioned to hedge against heightened macroeconomic uncertainties leading into the early phase of Trump’s administration in 2025,” noted Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy at the bank, in a report cited by Barron’s.
Gold in Rally Mode
Gold prices have been on a sharp upward trajectory for some time. The current surge in gold prices evokes memories of the late 1970s, when persistent inflation dominated markets, Barron’s recalls. This year alone, gold has risen by approximately 29%, reaching around $2,652 per ounce as of December 16, 2024. In October, prices hit a record high of nearly $2,790 per ounce before retreating following Donald Trump’s election as the next US President.
The temporary dip was driven by a strengthening US dollar, which typically inversely affects gold prices. However, Kaneva considers this decline “a position-driven misstep” rather than a fundamental market shift. The correction now seems to be behind us.
Bullish Forecasts for 2025
Commodities experts remain optimistic. JPMorgan anticipates gold’s average price in 2025 to hover around $2,950 per ounce, with potential peaks reaching $3,000 per ounce. This would represent a nearly 13% increase from current levels.
The Bank of America shares this positive outlook, advising investors to consider gold purchases if prices dip below the $2,500 mark. They, too, expect the precious metal to hit $3,000 per ounce in 2025.
Key Drivers
JPMorgan’s experts point to several potential growth drivers for gold. These include the policies of the Trump administration and inflationary pressures, where gold could serve as a valuable hedge. Central banks may accumulate the metal as a protective measure.
Gold could further benefit “if US policy becomes even more disruptive—marked by higher tariffs, increased trade tensions, stronger inflation, significant budget deficits, and heightened economic risks,” Barron’s reports.
Additionally, JPMorgan speculates on a potential decline in interest rates and a weakening US dollar, both of which typically support higher gold prices.
